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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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2014年首届亚军
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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CATEGORIES
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market analysis
Dollar under pressure after Fed official's cautious remarks
Wonderful introduction:
One person’s happiness may be fake, but the happiness of a group of people can no longer distinguish between true and false. They squandered their youth to their heart's content, wishing they could burn it all away. Their posture was like a carnival before the end of the world.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The dollar is under pressure after Federal Reserve officials issued cautious speeches." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
During the European trading session on Friday (November 14), the U.S. dollar index (DXY) was trading near 99.2727 after a volatile trading session on Thursday, barely holding above the key support level.
The dollar attempted to stabilize earlier in the day, but continued weakness in global growth indicators kept sentiment cautious. Despite a slight intraday rebound, the overall tone of the U.S. dollar remains defensive.
ING analysts believe that the U.S. dollar seems to be sending a signal: the reopening of the U.S. economy will lead to weak performance of relevant data, and the Federal Reserve will also adopt a looser monetary policy. "While the U.S. dollar is moving in line with our bearish expectations, we believe this move is a little premature; if the first U.S. economic data is not as bad as the market expects, U.S. dollar prices are likely to rebound quickly."
With uncertainty about inflation remaining, traders have lowered expectations for an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve. According to data from the CMEFedWatch tool, financial markets currently estimate that the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at the December meeting is about 51%; this probability was 62.9% a day ago.
The Fed’s speech highlighted uncertainty
A number of Fed officials, including Collins, Daly, Musalem, Kashkari and Hammack, gave speeches that day, but none supported immediate easing of policy.
Judging from the xmmen.comments of Federal Reserve officials, it seems that it will be more difficult to implement further interest rate cuts in December. Yesterday, Kashkari said that the economyThe recovery in activity was "better than I expected"; he also said he still left open the possibility of a rate cut in December. Hamak and Mussallem (who usually take a tougher stance) believe that the economy is now close to a stable state and there is limited room for further interest rate cuts. Daly said that since the Fed has cut interest rates twice this year, the risks to the two goals pursued by the Fed have now become balanced. If they have to be distinguished, the risks to the labor market slightly prevail.
Their stance still depends on the data, indicating that the Fed needs a clearer judgment on the situation before adjusting interest rates. This stance consolidates expectations for an interest rate cut in early 2026 and does not provide obvious directional support for the dollar.
September employment data will be released next week
There was important news yesterday: Kevin Hassett, director of the US National Economic Council and candidate for chairman of the Federal Reserve, announced that September employment data may be released next week, but it will not include unemployment data. This shows that the U.S. government does not want the Federal Reserve to use insufficient data as an excuse to delay its decision to cut interest rates in December.
Technical Analysis
The U.S. dollar index is falling back in a clear downward channel. Sellers have been in control since encountering resistance near 100.26. Prices are currently hovering around 99.18, just above support at 98.99, while the 20-day exponential moving average (20-EMA) continues to slope downwards, reinforcing the short-term bearish tone. The 200-day exponential moving average (200-EMA) is below 99.00, forming a key decision-making area.
The relative strength index (RSI) remains weak and is below the 50 level, indicating that buying power is limited. If it falls below 98.99, it may open the downward space to 98.55; and any rebound will face resistance near 99.36 and the suppression of the upper track of the channel.
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